Smoking
In a parallel universe:
Mr Prime Minister, let me make a proposal. I have in mind a product that I wish to begin selling to the UK public. I have been methodical in my research, and I have covered all angles. Please pay attention.
This product is to be consumed by the public. The basic process consists of growing a plant, picking its leaves, drying them, and rolling the contents of that dried leaf into a tube. The user inserts one end of the tube into their mouth, and applies a naked flame to the other end. This process is called 'lighting up'. The user then inhales the resulting fumes. Some choose to keep the fumes in their mouth, while others inhale the fumes deeply into their lungs, where the active ingredients of the fumes rapidly pass into their bloodstream. Some users talk of experiencing a pleasant feeling on doing so.
There are other routes that can be taken to achieve the same ends. The dried leaves of the plant can be pushed into a pipe, and lighted again. Smoke passes down the body of the pipe, through the mouthpiece and into the user's mouth.
Some users can just put the dried leaves straight into their mouths, and others choose to snort the dried leaves into their nostrils.
For the sake of today's meeting though, I would like to concentrate on the first process, whereby the user lights the tube and inhales the resulting smoke.
Impact Analysis
Here are some statistics, which have been gathered over long years of testing:
- 'Secondhand smoke' (smoke that users exhale) contains over 4,000 chemicals, some of which are:
- Tar
- Nicotine
- Carbon monoxide
- Formaldehyde
- Hydrogen cyanide
- Benzene
- If users partake of the pleasures of my new product, our extensive research has shown that there is a significant probability that this product will kill them. My research has shown that about half of all regular users of my product will eventually be killed by their habit. If you accept my trade proposal, I can assure you that 20% of deaths in your country will be due to my product being used entirely as intended.
- Tobacco use will kill around 114,000 people in the UK every year, more than 300 every day - as if a plane crashed every day and killed all its passengers. That is equivalent to losing forty times as many people who were killed in the 9/11 event, each and every year in this country alone.
- To put that in a global perspective, world-wide, almost 5 million people will die prematurely each year as a result of the use of my product. Based on projection mapping, this will rise to 10 million within 20 years
- Users who follow the correct instructions for my new product can look forward to dying via a large number of cruel and lingering deaths:
- it will cause at least 80% of all deaths from lung cancer
- around 80% of all deaths from bronchitis and emphysema
- around 17% of all deaths from heart disease.
- Conservative estimates show that 364,200 people will be admitted to NHS hospitals to be treated for diseases related to use of my product. They will occupy an average of 9,500 hospital beds every day.
- I am sure that your medical advisors will have made you aware of a disease called cancer. I give you my word that if you give me permission to sell my product, then thirty per cent of all cancer deaths will be attributed to the use of my product. For you information, cancers other than lung cancer which are linked to use of my product include:
- cervical cancer
- cancers of the mouth, lip and throat
- cancer of the pancreas
- bladder cancer
- cancer of the kidney
- stomach cancer
- liver cancer
- leukaemia
- The long term prognosis is not good: Fewer than 10% of lung cancer patients survive five years after diagnosis.
I have gathered some statistics for use in comparison:
- Users who consume between 1 and 14 of my 'tubes' a day have eight times the risk of dying from lung cancer compared to non-users.
- Users who consume more than 25 of my 'tubes' a day have 25 times this risk compared to non-users.
- Use increases the risk of having a heart attack by two or three times, compared with the risk to non-users.
- 90% of cases of peripheral vascular disease which lead to amputation of one or both legs will be caused by use of my product - about 2000 amputations a year in the UK.
- Since women make up approximately 50% of the voting base, I have done some gender specific research:
- Women who use my product and take the contraceptive pill have 10 times the risk of a heart attack, stroke or other cardiovascular disease compared with those who take the pill but do not use my product. Using my product has also been linked with an increased likelihood of menstrual problems (although not with PMT).
- Use of my product leads to an earlier menopause: on average women using this product go through the menopause up to 2 years earlier than non-users and are at a greater risk of developing osteoporosis.
- Use during pregnancy leads to an increased risk of:
- spontaneous abortion (miscarriage);
- bleeding during pregnancy;
- premature birth;
- low weight of babies at birth (which is associated with greater risks of ill-health and failure to thrive);
- Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (cot death)
- Not forgetting the men:
- use has been associated with increased sperm abnormalities and with impotence in men.
My colleagues are aware that in your country it is legal for adults over the age of 18 to consume 'alcohol'. Out of interest, we conducted some research into the use of alcohol combined with the use of my new product:
- People who use my product, and drink alcohol regularly are at greater risk of mouth and throat cancers.
- One study found that among consumers of both products the risk of these cancers was increased more than 35-fold among those who consumed forty or more of my 'products in a tube' a day and took more than four alcoholic drinks a day.
My product reaches far, and has many hidden impacts:
- My product can affect both sense of taste and smell. Users are more likely to develop facial wrinkles at a younger age and have dental hygiene problems. Stomach ulcers are made worse by its use, and wounds, including surgical incisions, in users take longer to heal.
The product can be used by any member of your population (as long as they have mastered some basic hand/eye coordination). You may need to think about some legislation to cover a 'minimum age' of use, but you will find enforcing such legislation time consuming and costly. For users in their teenage years:
- Teenage users experience more asthma and respiratory symptoms than non-users, suffer poorer health, have more school absences and are less fit.
Specimens who have tested my product need to exhale the smoke produced as a result of the consumption of the dried leaves. As you are a bright man, you will of course know that smoke tends to diffuse from areas of high concentration, or areas of lower concentration. Other specimens who were not in fact users, have been studied, in order to asses the impact of 'passive' use. It can lead to:
- increased sensitivity and reduced lung function in people with asthma;
- irritation of the eye, nose and throat;
- reduced lung function in adults with no chronic chest problems.
- Passive use also harms babies and children, with an increased risk of lower respiratory tract infection, increased severity of asthma symptoms, more frequent occurrence of chronic coughs, phlegm and wheezing, and increased risk of cot death and chronic middle ear effusion (glue ear).
- More than 17,000 children under the age of five will be admitted to hospital every year because of the effects of passive intake of the smoke.
Cost projections
You are a busy man, Mr Prime Minister. I, and my colleagues, have constructed some figures for you:
Debit:
- Use of my product will cost your National Health Service approximately £1.5 billion a year to treat diseases caused by as a result of its use. This includes the cost of hospital admissions, GP consultations and prescriptions. You will also have to pay for sickness/invalidity benefits, widows’ pensions and other social security benefits for dependants.
Credit:
Clearly the costs to your government will be high, so far - both financially and in terms of the number of lives that will be lost from your population (remember - about 300 EACH AND EVERY DAY). You will need some means of negating your losses.
You will be able to charge quite a high price for the product. Because of its negative effect on your population, you must be seen to be taking a tough stance on the potential manufacturers of my product. You will be able to use the sale of my product to generate revenue for your government, via taxation:
- Tax will be levied on the product in three ways:
- specific excise duty at a rate per 1000 units (i.e. 'tubes' of my product),
- an "ad valorem" excise duty which is 20% of the total retail price,
- and VAT at 17.5% of the price including the other taxes.
- About 80% of the price of a packet of my product should consist of taxation.
Case Study - detailed financial modeling has shown that, should you give permission for me to manufacture, market and sell my product in your country, your Treasury will be likely to earn £8.05 billion in revenue from tax duties imposed on my product (excluding VAT).
Conclusion
To sum up, I would like to say that the use of my product has advantages and disadvantages:
Disadvantages:
- Health impact: Assuming an average take up rate in your population, approximately 120,000 people in your country will die each year if they have the dedication and commitment to use it entirely as intended.
- Costly bills: it will cost you approximately £1.5bn per year to mop up all of the death, debilitation and associated side effects linked with a steady use of my product.
Advantages:
- Income: you will make approximately £8 billion per year from taxation imposed on my product
- Job demand: steady use of my product will lead to an increased demand for staff in the following sectors:
- medical
- legal (people will sue to manufacturers of my product)
- manufacturing (factories to create my product).
I am sure you will agree that as business plans go, this one is sound. If you decide to grant me permission to sell this product in your country, you will not come to regret your decision. Some tact will be needed to try to sell the benefits of my product to the public, but I hear you are well versed in Public Relations, and should thus cope admirably with the challenge of this task.
Thank you.
Source: http://www.ash.org.uk/






